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Friday, 19 September 2008

Safe to get back in the water

During the day yesterday I told everyone I could "noo is the time, noo is the oor" for getting back into banking stocks. I said this is more than gut feel, but very much gut feel that we had now touched bottom and lo! it came to pass!
"Battered banks bounced back strongly, with the FTSE 350 bank index soaring 20.7 percent. Barclays, HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland HBOS and Standard Chartered leapt between 17 and 32 percent."
Dead cats never bounce by 9%, and dead banks absolutely never by 20%. Many people made double digit gains and there will be some profit-taking on Monday. One big bounce does not make a bull run, but while prices will remain volatile they should zigzag up to Christmas.
There are some horrible shocks ahead and some more senior bankers will resign and thousands of others lose jobs, but we are all so battered, bruised and bored by bad news that I think markets are prepared to take future shocks in their stride. Also it looks like a sunny weekend and so many dealers felt the need to end Friday on a market high.

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